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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 50

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model