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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 88

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-T.Purdum. 84-A.Brown to NYJ 31 for 33 yards (25-C.Pryor).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model