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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Berry right end to NYJ 31 for -3 yards (45-R.Miles). FUMBLES (45-R.Miles), ball out of bounds at NYJ 27. Penalty on PIT-78-A.Villanueva, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model