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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 54

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP