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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.65 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model