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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 54

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 29-B.Powell to NYJ 44 for -2 yards (94-L.Timmons).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -0.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model