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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CIN
43.2%
PIT
56.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.132 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.269 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Ankle
Pat Sims DT Questionable Ankle

PIT

Senquez Golson CB Out Foot
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Back
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Ryan Shazier LB Questionable Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 16
–
PIT 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:53 TD PIT (3:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 85-X.Grimble for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 00:26 FG CIN (:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 04:14 FG PIT (4:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 3 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG CIN (:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – PIT 10
  • Q3 06:23 TD PIT (6:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 16
  • Q3 02:13 FG CIN (2:13) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 9 – PIT 17
  • Q4 06:53 TD PIT (6:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 34-D.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – PIT 23
  • Q4 03:34 TD CIN (3:34) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 25-G.Bernard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 15 – PIT 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 20, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 16 for 6 yards (53-M.Flowers, 86-J.Wright).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%

    (6:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Jones [36-S.Williams] at CIN 21. 24-A.Jones to CIN 23 for 2 yards (84-A.Brown).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 34 for 14 yards (26-J.Shaw).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 44%

    (11:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:26) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 37 for 4 yards (46-C.Harris; 33-R.Burkhead).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 11, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 18 for 7 yards (54-L.Fort). Penalty on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Penalty on CIN-86-J.Wright, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:31) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 49 for 15 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%

    (6:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 5.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (4:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to PIT 32 for 5 yards (50-R.Shazier).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 35 for 8 yards (33-R.Burkhead). FUMBLES (33-R.Burkhead), recovered by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey at PIT 33.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 27%

    (11:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CIN 8, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (9:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (2:13) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 9, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain (29-S.Thomas).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:49) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 25 for 12 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 21-R.Golden).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.