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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 37

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Jones [36-S.Williams] at CIN 21. 24-A.Jones to CIN 23 for 2 yards (84-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model