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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 20, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP