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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model