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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model