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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 9, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain (29-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP