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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 49 for 15 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP