4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 35 for 8 yards (33-R.Burkhead). FUMBLES (33-R.Burkhead), recovered by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey at PIT 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model