4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP