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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CIN 8, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model