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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP