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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-01-10 · 13:05 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🌨 Snow Spread -4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA
63.4%
MIN
36.6%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.342 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
MIN 21
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SEA

Luke Willson TE Out Concussion
Marshawn Lynch RB Questionable Abdomen
Michael Bennett DE Probable Toe
Kam Chancellor S Probable Pelvis
Jordan Hill DT Probable Toe
Jeremy Lane CB Probable Oblique
Tyler Lockett WR Probable Hip
Russell Okung T Probable Calf
J.R. Sweezy G Probable Concussion

MIN

Kenrick Ellis DT Out Ankle
Everson Griffen DE Probable Shoulder
Linval Joseph DT Probable Foot
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Back
Adam Thielen WR Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 10
–
MIN 9

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:06 FG MIN (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. SEA 0 – MIN 3
  • Q3 07:09 FG MIN (7:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. SEA 0 – MIN 6
  • Q3 00:07 FG MIN (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. SEA 0 – MIN 9
  • Q4 11:41 TD SEA (11:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – MIN 9
  • Q4 08:09 FG SEA (8:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – MIN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:53) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to MIN 48 for 2 yards (92-B.Mebane, 54-B.Wagner).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

    (8:05) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 23 yards to SEA 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-47-K.McDermott.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:01) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan Aborted. 49-C.Gresham FUMBLES at SEA 11, recovered by SEA-9-J.Ryan at SEA 11. 9-J.Ryan to SEA 29 for 18 yards (31-J.McKinnon).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:57) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 26 yards to MIN 28, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-57-M.Morgan.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:19) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to SEA 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 39 for 7 yards (26-T.Waynes).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 71%

    (5:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson to MIN 23 for 7 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 14 for 5 yards (48-Z.Line).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 29 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-40-D.Coleman.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 44%

    (10:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 86-C.Coffman INTERCEPTED by 26-T.Waynes at MIN 22. 26-T.Waynes to MIN 46 for 24 yards (22-F.Jackson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (7:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to MIN 40, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for -3 yards (40-D.Coleman). PENALTY on SEA-40-D.Coleman, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (8:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:02) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to SEA 31, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:27) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:24) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for -2 yards (21-J.Robinson).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to MIN 29, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 39 for 10 yards (33-K.McCray).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.