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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 29 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-40-D.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP