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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(8:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model