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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to SEA 31, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.79 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model