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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.88 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model