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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 40

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 86-C.Coffman INTERCEPTED by 26-T.Waynes at MIN 22. 26-T.Waynes to MIN 46 for 24 yards (22-F.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.45 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model