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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:57) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 26 yards to MIN 28, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-57-M.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.47 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP