Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(2:24) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for -2 yards (21-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.48 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model