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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 14 for 5 yards (48-Z.Line).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model