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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to MIN 40, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for -3 yards (40-D.Coleman). PENALTY on SEA-40-D.Coleman, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model