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Minnesota Vikings

11-5 HC Mike Zimmer
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Green Bay Packers

10-6 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 20:30 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
53.7%
GB
46.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22 15–29
–
GB 21 14–28
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIN

Linval Joseph DT Doubtful Foot
Sharrif Floyd DT Probable Knee
Everson Griffen DE Probable Shoulder
Anthony Harris S Probable Hip
Matt Kalil T Probable Shin
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Ankle
Harrison Smith S Probable Hamstring
Adam Thielen WR Probable Back

GB

Jayrone Elliott LB Out Quadricep
Justin Perillo TE Out Hamstring
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Groin
Mike Neal LB Questionable Hip
B.J. Raji DT Questionable Concussion
Sam Shields CB Questionable Concussion
Casey Hayward CB Probable Ankle
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Ankle
Letroy Guion DT Probable Foot
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Rib
T.J. Lang G Probable Shoulder
Corey Linsley C Probable Ankle
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
GB 13

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:49 FG MIN (10:49) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 02:06 FG GB (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. MIN 3 – GB 3
  • Q2 02:58 FG MIN (2:58) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 6 – GB 3
  • Q3 10:37 TD MIN (10:37) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – GB 3
  • Q3 04:42 TD MIN (4:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 47 for -8 yards (97-E.Griffen). FUMBLES (97-E.Griffen), RECOVERED by MIN-24-C.Munnerlyn at MIN 45. 24-C.Munnerlyn for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. MIN 19 – GB 3
  • Q4 13:37 TD GB (13:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 82-R.Rodgers for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – GB 9
  • Q4 05:39 FG GB (5:39) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. MIN 20 – GB 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:16) (Punt formation) 19-A.Thielen left end to GB 21 for 41 yards (55-A.Mulumba).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (10:49) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:11) 27-E.Lacy left guard to GB 43 for 2 yards (73-S.Floyd, 34-A.Sendejo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:33) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 26 for 10 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:58) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to MIN 30, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 26, ball out of bounds at MIN 16. Ball batted at Minn 26 by Minn 35 Sherels.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:48) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to GB 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:41) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to MIN 32, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 43 for 11 yards (32-C.Banjo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (2:58) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 45%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (:12) 18-J.Locke punts 30 yards to GB 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 29 yards to MIN 42, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:52) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 36 for 13 yards (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on MIN-51-E.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to MIN 33 for 4 yards (29-X.Rhodes) [97-E.Griffen].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 18%

    (10:07) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 84-J.Abbrederis. Yard marker changed due to change of possession.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (5:39) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 89-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes [92-T.Johnson] at MIN -4. Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:07) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to GB 37, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 42 for 5 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers to MIN 46 for 12 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn; 34-A.Sendejo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 51%

    (:01) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Jones (55-A.Barr).

    See the full breakdown →