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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 27-E.Lacy left guard to GB 43 for 2 yards (73-S.Floyd, 34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model