Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 20

(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers to MIN 46 for 12 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn; 34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.08 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -0.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model