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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 29 yards to MIN 42, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP