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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 18-J.Locke punts 30 yards to GB 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP