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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 89-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes [92-T.Johnson] at MIN -4. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP