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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to MIN 32, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 43 for 11 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model