Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to MIN 30, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 26, ball out of bounds at MIN 16. Ball batted at Minn 26 by Minn 35 Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model