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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model