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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 84-J.Abbrederis. Yard marker changed due to change of possession.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP