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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
34.3%
HOU
65.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Brian Hoyer (HOU) +0.169 vs Zach Mettenberger (TEN) -0.380 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TEN

Perrish Cox CB Out Hamstring
Harry Douglas WR Out Ribs
Marcus Mariota QB Out Knee
Andy Gallik C Questionable Concussion
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Griffin S Probable Knee
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee

HOU

Akeem Dent LB Out Hamstring
Kareem Jackson CB Out Ankle
Greg Mancz C Out Knee
Benardrick McKinney LB Out Concussion
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Brandon Brooks G Questionable Toe
Charles James CB Questionable Foot
J.J. Watt DE Questionable Back
Quintin Demps S Probable Hamstring
Ben Jones C Probable Thumb
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Jay Prosch RB Probable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Illness
Derek Newton T Probable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 6
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:09 FG TEN (9:09) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 14:11 TD HOU (14:11) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – HOU 6
  • Q2 11:39 FG HOU (11:39) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 3 – HOU 10
  • Q3 05:58 FG TEN (5:58) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – HOU 10
  • Q3 03:47 TD HOU (3:47) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle to 85-N.Washington for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.Williamson]. HOU-85-N.Washington was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. TEN 6 – HOU 16
  • Q4 12:37 FG HOU (12:37) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 6 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 24 for 5 yards (57-J.Tuggle).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (9:09) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 20 for 4 yards (51-J.Simon).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:52) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for 10 yards (28-M.Huff; 48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (2:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:45) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 36, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 46 for 10 yards (28-M.Huff).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (11:39) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:58) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to HOU 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 34 for 8 yards (57-J.Staples, 28-M.Huff).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (5:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

    (3:42) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at HOU 28 for 37 yards.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:39) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 30 for 10 yards (28-A.Blue).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

    (5:58) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%

    (14:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (12:37) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:58) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 25 for 7 yards (45-J.Prosch).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 46%

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass incomplete short right to 81-R.Richardson (24-J.Joseph).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%

    (1:08) 28-A.Blue right tackle to TEN 24 for 4 yards (33-M.Griffin; 95-A.Blackson).