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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 20

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model