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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model