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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 28

Houston Texans 20 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 28-A.Blue right tackle to TEN 24 for 4 yards (33-M.Griffin; 95-A.Blackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP