Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

(7:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 20 for 4 yards (51-J.Simon).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model