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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 6

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model