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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 48

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP