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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 48

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model