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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 24 for 5 yards (57-J.Tuggle).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model