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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 86

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to HOU 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 34 for 8 yards (57-J.Staples, 28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model