4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model