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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Monday 2015-11-02 · 20:30 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

IND
32.0%
CAR
68.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): -0.055 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 19
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

IND

Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Khaled Holmes C Out Neck
Nate Irving LB Out Knee
Winston Guy S Doubtful Shoulder
Mike Adams S Probable Hamstring
Clayton Geathers S Probable Knee

CAR

Mario Addison DE Out Shoulder
Dwan Edwards DT Out Ankle
Ryan Kalil C Doubtful Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Doubtful Knee
Thomas Davis LB Probable Not Injury Related
Mike Tolbert RB Probable Not Injury Related
Daryl Williams T Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 26
–
CAR 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:45 FG CAR (13:45) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. IND 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 07:27 TD CAR (7:27) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Amini Silatolu reported as eligible IND 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 10:27 FG IND (10:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – CAR 10
  • Q2 07:08 FG IND (7:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 6 – CAR 10
  • Q3 00:22 TD CAR (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – CAR 16
  • Q4 10:51 TD CAR (10:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – CAR 23
  • Q4 07:11 TD IND (7:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 81-A.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – CAR 23
  • Q4 02:37 TD IND (2:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 80-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – CAR 23
  • Q4 00:02 FG IND (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 23 – CAR 23
  • Q5 12:09 FG IND (12:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 26 – CAR 23
  • Q5 07:55 FG CAR (7:55) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. IND 26 – CAR 26
  • Q5 05:27 FG CAR (5:27) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. IND 26 – CAR 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (13:45) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (9:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard to IND 12 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson; 50-J.Freeman).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (7:27) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Amini Silatolu reported as eligible

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (4:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to CAR 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:03) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to IND 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 37 for 10 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:35) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to CAR 10, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:49) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to IND 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 75%

    (10:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (7:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 19%

    (2:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 43%

    (1:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to IND 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 38%

    (11:20) 8-B.Nortman punts 24 yards to IND 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 20%

    (6:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to IND 47, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at IND 29 for 18 yards (1-P.McAfee).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to CAR 34, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for no gain (32-C.Anderson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:39) 8-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to IND 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 23 for -7 yards (21-T.Williams).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:51) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 43 for 6 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:11) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to IND 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at IND 40 for 7 yards (56-A.Klein).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 17-G.Whalen to CAR 48 for 12 yards (59-L.Kuechly). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.