Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

(:35) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to CAR 10, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.13 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model